Katar 3-1 Kırgızistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 10 Oct 2024

📅10/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.3
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
21%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.18
Over 2.5
45%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.29
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
20%
2.98
6+ Goals
9%
9.09
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.29 — our 29% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
4%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
72%
-15.4pp
22%
Draw
17%
+4.9pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+10.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
42%
+12.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
58%
-12.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.0pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katar EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Kırgızistan EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.56/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.12
+30% / -57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +103% / +23%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
423 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 2.0
22.0 Crosses 9.0
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katar
3-1
AWAY Kırgızistan
2.86 xG 0.38
63% Ball Possession 37%
30 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
444 Passes 232
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 4
27 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Katar vs Kırgızistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katar got the better of Kırgızistan 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Katar as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Katar had 63% of the ball to Kırgızistan's 37%, shots finished 30-8, expected goals 2.86 to 0.38.

What was the final score of Katar vs Kırgızistan?

Katar 3-1 Kırgızistan in the World Cup Qualifiers on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katar vs Kırgızistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Katar win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Katar 57%, draw 22%, Kırgızistan 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Katar) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Katar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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