Avustralya 3-1 Çin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 10 Oct 2024

📅10/10/2024 · 🕒12:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.22
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
12%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.51
No
52%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.08
6+ Goals
13%
9.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.37
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
31.5
X/1
22%
3.18
X/2
4%
28.5
X/X
9%
8.19
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
28.5
2/2
4%
25.5
2/X
7%
32.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 11% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
78%
-10.6pp
21%
Draw
16%
+4.8pp
12%
Away Win
7%
+5.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
36%
+12.7pp
52%
BTTS No
64%
-12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avustralya EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Çin EU Bookmakers 9%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
2.94/0.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.21/1.58
+20% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -33%
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
547 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 185 · 66%
33.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 3.4
23.2 Crosses 6.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avustralya
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Çin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
1.84 xG 0.73
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
496 Passes 253
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 12
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2021 Çin Çin 1-1 HT 0-1 Avustralya Avustralya DKE
02.09.2021 Avustralya Avustralya 3-0 HT 2-0 Çin Çin DKE
22.01.2015 Çin Çin 0-2 HT 0-0 Avustralya Avustralya ASK
24.03.2007 Çin Çin 0-2 HT 0-2 Avustralya Avustralya HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avustralya
3-1
AWAY Çin
1.07 xG 0.25
73% Ball Possession 27%
18 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
610 Passes 166
87% Pass Accuracy 63%
26 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Avustralya vs Çin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avustralya got the better of Çin 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Avustralya as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Avustralya had 73% of the ball to Çin's 27%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.07 to 0.25.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Avustralya had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Avustralya and 0.25 for Çin.

What was the final score of Avustralya vs Çin?

Avustralya 3-1 Çin in the World Cup Qualifiers on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avustralya vs Çin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avustralya win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Avustralya 67%, draw 21%, Çin 12%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avustralya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avustralya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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