Afan Lido 1-1 Baglan Dragons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 10 Oct 2025

📅10/10/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.46
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
54%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
2.0
Over 2.5
40%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
35%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
25%
-3.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
54%
Away Win
50%
+3.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
46%
+14.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
54%
-14.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.3pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Afan Lido EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 55%
+12% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.49/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/0.32
+2% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
257 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 450 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Afan Lido
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Baglan Dragons
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
08.02.2025 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 1-1 HT 0-0 Afan Lido Afan Lido GALFAW
04.10.2024 Afan Lido Afan Lido 0-3 HT 0-2 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
12.01.2024 Afan Lido Afan Lido 0-2 HT 0-2 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
21.10.2023 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 0-1 HT 0-0 Afan Lido Afan Lido GALFAW
21.07.2023 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 1-3 Afan Lido Afan Lido GALLK
POST-MATCH Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Afan Lido and Baglan Dragons couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Baglan Dragons at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Afan Lido and 1.40 for Baglan Dragons.

What was the final score of Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons?

Afan Lido 1-1 Baglan Dragons in the Wales - FAW Championship on 10/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons?

Before kick-off our model rated an Baglan Dragons win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Afan Lido 22%, draw 24%, Baglan Dragons 54%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Baglan Dragons), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Baglan Dragons) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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