Fiorentina 3-1 Hellas Verona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.22
6+ Goals
12%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.87
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.05
X/1
17%
3.65
X/2
8%
12.05
X/X
11%
5.89
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
11%
9.52
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
17.85
Value flag · 2/X at 17.85 — our 9% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.7pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.0pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+8.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.8pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Hellas Verona EU Bookmakers 20%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
1.82/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.42
-5% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +12%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
443 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 72%
32.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
24.1 Crosses 14.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Hellas Verona
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.28 xG 1.29
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
318 Passes 220
74% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.05.2024 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 2-1 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
17.12.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0 HT 0-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
27.02.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 0-3 HT 0-2 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
18.09.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-0 HT 1-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
06.03.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 1-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
22.12.2021 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
3-1
AWAY Hellas Verona
1.91 xG 0.44
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
347 Passes 192
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina saw off Hellas Verona 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 61% of the ball to Hellas Verona's 39%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.91 to 0.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fiorentina and 0.67 for Hellas Verona.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?

Fiorentina 3-1 Hellas Verona in the Italy - Serie A on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 50%, draw 25%, Hellas Verona 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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