Roma 2-3 Bologna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 10 Nov 2024

Roma
2-3 HT 0-1
Bologna
📅10/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.62
Over 2.5
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.56
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.6
6+ Goals
8%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 35% vs market 32.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.02
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
16%
4.44
X/2
11%
6.7
X/X
19%
3.99
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
11%
5.38
2/X
5%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-2.6pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.8pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+3.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-3.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.0pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Bologna EU Bookmakers 31%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +15%
1.38/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.26
-6% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 81%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
18.5 Crosses 13.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Bologna
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.16 xG 0.73
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
337 Passes 457
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.04.2024 Roma Roma 1-3 HT 0-2 Bologna Bologna İTA
17.12.2023 Bologna Bologna 2-0 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
14.05.2023 Bologna Bologna 0-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
04.01.2023 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
01.05.2022 Roma Roma 0-0 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
01.12.2021 Bologna Bologna 1-0 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
2-3
AWAY Bologna
1.32 xG 1.68
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
323 Passes 280
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Roma vs Bologna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna edged past Roma 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Roma at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Roma had 54% of the ball to Bologna's 46%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.32 to 1.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bologna led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Roma and 1.00 for Bologna.

What was the final score of Roma vs Bologna?

Roma 2-3 Bologna in the Italy - Serie A on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Bologna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Roma 41%, draw 31%, Bologna 27%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Roma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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