Esbjerg 2-0 Roskilde — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.14
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.65
X/1
16%
4.34
X/2
8%
9.6
X/X
14%
6.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.45
2/2
9%
6.44
2/X
7%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.45 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.6pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Roskilde EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -23%
1.98/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.55
-1% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -32%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 81%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
22.9 Crosses 10.6
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esbjerg
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Roskilde
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.71 xG 1.03
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
346 Passes 428
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2024 Roskilde Roskilde 1-2 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
08.06.2024 Roskilde Roskilde 2-2 HT 1-2 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
12.05.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 3-2 HT 1-1 Roskilde Roskilde DAN2
28.03.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 4-2 HT 1-0 Roskilde Roskilde DAN2
30.09.2023 Roskilde Roskilde 3-3 HT 2-2 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
12.03.2023 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-1 HT 1-0 Roskilde Roskilde DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esbjerg
2-0
AWAY Roskilde
2.70 xG 0.64
47% Ball Possession 53%
22 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
368 Passes 391
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
36 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 21
POST-MATCH Esbjerg vs Roskilde
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esbjerg saw off Roskilde 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Esbjerg as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Esbjerg had 47% of the ball to Roskilde's 53%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 2.70 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Esbjerg had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Esbjerg and 1.83 for Roskilde.

What was the final score of Esbjerg vs Roskilde?

Esbjerg 2-0 Roskilde in the Denmark 1st Division on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esbjerg vs Roskilde?

Before kick-off our model rated a Esbjerg win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Esbjerg 51%, draw 26%, Roskilde 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Esbjerg) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Esbjerg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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