Basford United 1-1 Gainsborough Trinity — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.17
Draw
20%
3.54
Away
45%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
21%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
28%
+6.9pp
20%
Draw
25%
-4.5pp
45%
Away Win
47%
-2.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.9pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basford United EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Gainsborough Trinity EU Bookmakers 51%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.21/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.78
-16% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -31%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basford United
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Gainsborough Trinity
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
17.09.2024 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity 0-3 HT 0-3 Basford United Basford United İNGNLP
17.02.2024 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity 3-0 HT 1-0 Basford United Basford United İNGNLP
30.09.2023 Basford United Basford United 3-0 HT 3-0 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity İNGNLP
15.01.2022 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity 1-0 HT 0-0 Basford United Basford United İNGNLP
14.09.2021 Basford United Basford United 2-0 HT 1-0 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity İNGNLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basford United
1-1
AWAY Gainsborough Trinity
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Basford United vs Gainsborough Trinity
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basford United and Gainsborough Trinity shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Gainsborough Trinity at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Basford United had 51% of the ball to Gainsborough Trinity's 49%, shots finished 14-15.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Basford United had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Basford United and 0.80 for Gainsborough Trinity.

What was the final score of Basford United vs Gainsborough Trinity?

Basford United 1-1 Gainsborough Trinity in the England - Non League Premier on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basford United vs Gainsborough Trinity?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gainsborough Trinity win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Basford United 35%, draw 20%, Gainsborough Trinity 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gainsborough Trinity), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gainsborough Trinity) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNGNLP More England - Non League Premier
11 Jan 2025
18:00 Macclesfield vs United of Manchester Analysis →
18:00 Basingstoke Town vs Winchester City Analysis →
18:00 Wimborne Town vs Marlow Analysis →
18:00 Gosport Borough vs Taunton Town Analysis →
18:00 Merthyr Town vs Dorchester Town Analysis →
18:00 Plymouth Parkway vs Swindon Supermarine Analysis →