Freiburg 3-2 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 11 Jan 2025

Freiburg
3-2 HT 2-0
Holstein Kiel
📅11/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Freiburg vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.43
Over 2.5
58%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.93
4-5 Goals
27%
2.65
6+ Goals
12%
6.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.8
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.15
X/1
15%
3.86
X/2
9%
12.95
X/X
8%
7.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.15
2/2
7%
9.15
2/X
6%
17.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.15 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-6.5pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.4pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.9pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 20%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
2.07/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.93
-15% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -30%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
416 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 76%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
21.5 Crosses 15.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Freiburg vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.71 xG 1.54
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
377 Passes 344
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
31.10.2018 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-1 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AFK

Freiburg 3-2 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
3-2
AWAY Holstein Kiel
0.69 xG 1.82
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 1
362 Passes 356
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 31
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg nicked a narrow win over Holstein Kiel 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Freiburg as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Freiburg had 51% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 49%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.69 to 1.82 — the balance of chances actually favoured Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Holstein Kiel?

Freiburg 3-2 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - Bundesliga on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 57%, draw 21%, Holstein Kiel 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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