Hoffenheim 0-1 Wolfsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 11 Jan 2025

Hoffenheim
0-1 HT 0-1
Wolfsburg
📅11/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.03
Over 2.5
58%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.6
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.76
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.07
6+ Goals
15%
10.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.07 — our 27% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.18
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
30.5
1/X
11%
12.35
X/1
12%
5.3
X/2
11%
6.54
X/X
8%
4.88
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
17%
4.3
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.5 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.4pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+6.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
45%
-3.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
55%
+3.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.2pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -9%
1.84/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.40
+21% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 80%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
20.1 Crosses 18.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.34 xG 1.42
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
362 Passes 315
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.12.2024 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 3-0 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AFK
04.02.2024 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-2 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
02.09.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 3-1 HT 1-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
13.05.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
06.01.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 3-2 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim HAZ
12.11.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-2 HT 1-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1

Hoffenheim 0-1 Wolfsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
0-1
AWAY Wolfsburg
0.98 xG 0.75
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
358 Passes 289
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 27
23 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolfsburg nicked a narrow win over Hoffenheim 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Wolfsburg found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 54% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 46%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 0.98 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wolfsburg led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Hoffenheim and 2.17 for Wolfsburg.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg?

Hoffenheim 0-1 Wolfsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 38%, draw 24%, Wolfsburg 37%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
11 Jan 2025
17:30 Heidenheim vs Union Berlin Analysis →
17:30 Freiburg vs Holstein Kiel Analysis →
17:30 St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt Analysis →
17:30 Mainz 05 vs Bochum Analysis →
20:30 Mönchengladbach vs Bayern Münih Analysis →