Mainz 05 2-0 Bochum — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.66
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
1.9
Over 2.5
60%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.85
No
43%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.22
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
25%
3.44
6+ Goals
12%
13.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
2.19
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.25
X/1
16%
3.93
X/2
8%
9.85
X/X
8%
5.11
2/1
7%
24.3
2/2
7%
7.81
2/X
7%
16.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
56%
+0.7pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.1pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+1.4pp
40%
Under 2.5
49%
-9.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
51%
+9.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
50%
+7.4pp
43%
BTTS No
50%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Bochum EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -19%
1.87/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.94
-4% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
312 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 72%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
22.1 Crosses 18.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Bochum
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.45 xG 1.40
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
242 Passes 309
65% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-0 HT 1-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
27.10.2023 Bochum Bochum 2-2 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
28.01.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 5-2 HT 3-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
06.08.2022 Bochum Bochum 1-2 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
18.01.2022 Bochum Bochum 3-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AFK
15.01.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-0 HT 0-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
2-0
AWAY Bochum
1.91 xG 0.60
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
401 Passes 250
76% Pass Accuracy 67%
28 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Bochum
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 saw off Bochum 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 58% of the ball to Bochum's 42%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.91 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.33 for Bochum.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Bochum?

Mainz 05 2-0 Bochum in the Germany - Bundesliga on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Bochum?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 57%, draw 22%, Bochum 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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