Manchester United 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 11 Jan 2026

Manchester United
1-2 HT 0-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
📅11/01/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2025/2026

Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.76
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
20%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.61
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.9
2-3 Goals
41%
2.07
4-5 Goals
23%
2.54
6+ Goals
14%
5.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.29
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
21%
4.87
X/2
6%
8.94
X/X
10%
6.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.2
2/2
8%
5.76
2/X
6%
14.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.2 — our 9% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
52%
+5.8pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.0pp
20%
Away Win
25%
-4.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.1pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester United v Brighton & Hove Albion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 29%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
1.39/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.89
-16% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +30%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
298 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 82%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 39.2
18.1 Crosses 18.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.1

Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester United
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.31 xG 1.83
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
384 Passes 472
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.10.2025 Manchester United Manchester United 4-2 HT 2-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
19.01.2025 Manchester United Manchester United 1-3 HT 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
24.08.2024 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1 HT 1-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
19.05.2024 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-2 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
16.09.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 1-3 HT 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
04.05.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP

Manchester United 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester United
1-2
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.30 xG 1.24
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
445 Passes 294
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brighton & Hove Albion squeezed past Manchester United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Manchester United at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Manchester United had 60% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 40%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.30 to 1.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brighton & Hove Albion led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Manchester United and 1.83 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

What was the final score of Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Manchester United 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - FA Cup on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Manchester United 58%, draw 22%, Brighton & Hove Albion 20%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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