Portsmouth 1-4 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 11 Jan 2026

Portsmouth
1-4 HT 1-2
Arsenal
📅11/01/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2025/2026

Portsmouth vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
12.23
Draw
19%
6.26
Away
66%
1.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.74
Over 2.5
49%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.09
No
50%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
6.08
2-3 Goals
41%
2.08
4-5 Goals
24%
2.45
6+ Goals
10%
5.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.08 — our 25% vs market 11.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
29.5
1/2
8%
24.0
1/X
6%
35.0
X/1
5%
33.5
X/2
21%
3.87
X/X
8%
11.4
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
37%
1.27
2/X
5%
30.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
6%
+9.1pp
19%
Draw
13%
+5.5pp
66%
Away Win
81%
-14.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
33%
+17.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
67%
-17.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.6pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Portsmouth v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 85%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.81/0.09
+9% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +150%
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
220 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 502 · 85%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.5
– Crosses 17.7
– Yellow Cards 0.4

Portsmouth vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portsmouth
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Arsenal
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.74 xG 2.70
27% Ball Possession 73%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 10
152 Passes 560
70% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 27
26 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.03.2020 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0-2 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal FAK
30.12.2009 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-4 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
22.08.2009 Arsenal Arsenal 4-1 HT 2-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNP
02.05.2009 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0-3 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
28.12.2008 Arsenal Arsenal 1-0 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNP
26.12.2007 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Portsmouth 1-4 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portsmouth
1-4
AWAY Arsenal
1.07 xG 2.91
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
199 Passes 371
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 46
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Portsmouth vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal cruised past Portsmouth 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Portsmouth had 39% of the ball to Arsenal's 61%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.07 to 2.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Portsmouth and 2.33 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of Portsmouth vs Arsenal?

Portsmouth 1-4 Arsenal in the England - FA Cup on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portsmouth vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Portsmouth 15%, draw 19%, Arsenal 66%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Under 2.5
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