Derby County 1-3 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 11 Jan 2026

Derby County
1-3 HT 1-0
Leeds United
📅11/01/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2025/2026

Derby County vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.65
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
58%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.31
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
12.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
8.73
1/2 EV+ ✓
8%
23.1
1/X
5%
17.4
X/1
10%
10.6
X/2
10%
4.08
X/X
9%
5.45
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
40%
2.06
2/X
5%
15.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.1 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
18%
+3.8pp
20%
Draw
24%
-3.7pp
58%
Away Win
58%
-0.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.5pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 62%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
0.57/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.67/1.32
-66% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -32%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
210 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 81%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 43.9
16.4 Crosses 29.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Derby County vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Leeds United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.73 xG 1.81
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
243 Passes 393
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.12.2024 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
07.12.2024 Leeds United Leeds United 2-0 HT 2-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
19.07.2020 Derby County Derby County 1-3 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
21.09.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 1-1 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
15.05.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 2-4 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
11.05.2019 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL

Derby County 1-3 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
1-3
AWAY Leeds United
0.45 xG 2.47
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 11
5 Corners 5
175 Passes 443
67% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 39
11 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United saw off Derby County 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leeds United as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Derby County had 34% of the ball to Leeds United's 66%, shots finished 7-22, expected goals 0.45 to 2.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Derby County and 1.67 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Leeds United?

Derby County 1-3 Leeds United in the England - FA Cup on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Derby County 22%, draw 20%, Leeds United 58%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leeds United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leeds United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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