Vitoria Guimaraes II 1-2 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 11 Jan 2026

📅11/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+4.9pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.3pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-1.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.8pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes II EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 34%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -6%
0.89/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.18
-30% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
269 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes II
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Varzim
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
5 Yellow Cards 2
04.10.2025 Varzim Varzim 1-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR3
19.02.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II 2-1 HT 0-1 Varzim Varzim POR3
04.11.2022 Varzim Varzim 2-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR3
14.07.2018 Varzim Varzim 0-2 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II HAZ
20.09.2015 Varzim Varzim 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes II
1-2
AWAY Varzim
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varzim squeezed past Vitoria Guimaraes II 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes II at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes II had 60% of the ball to Varzim's 40%, shots finished 19-9.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes II and 1.00 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Varzim?

Vitoria Guimaraes II 1-2 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes II win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes II 45%, draw 25%, Varzim 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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