Caldas 1-2 CF Os Belenenses — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 11 Jan 2026

📅11/01/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
11%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+2.1pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.1pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.4pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 46%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.61/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/0.99
-49% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
1W-2D-2L
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.10.2025 CF Os Belenenses 0-2 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
03.11.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-1 HT 0-0 CF Os Belenenses POR3
02.08.2024 CF Os Belenenses 2-1 HT 2-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
19.02.2023 Caldas Caldas 0-1 HT 0-0 CF Os Belenenses POR3
06.11.2022 CF Os Belenenses 1-1 HT 1-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
1-2
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Caldas vs CF Os Belenenses
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Os Belenenses squeezed past Caldas 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had CF Os Belenenses as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Caldas had 54% of the ball to CF Os Belenenses's 46%, shots finished 11-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, CF Os Belenenses led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Caldas and 1.00 for CF Os Belenenses.

What was the final score of Caldas vs CF Os Belenenses?

Caldas 1-2 CF Os Belenenses in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs CF Os Belenenses?

Before kick-off our model rated an CF Os Belenenses win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Caldas 31%, draw 26%, CF Os Belenenses 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CF Os Belenenses), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CF Os Belenenses) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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