Sporting Covilha 1-0 Academica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 11 Jan 2026

📅11/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.04
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
52%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
32%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
22%
+3.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
52%
Away Win
54%
-2.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Academica EU Bookmakers 58%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.36/2.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/0.70
+22% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +23%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
244 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Covilha
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Academica
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
05.10.2025 Academica Academica 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
06.04.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 1-0 Academica Academica POR3
01.03.2025 Academica Academica 2-1 HT 1-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
10.11.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 3-4 HT 2-1 Academica Academica POR3
11.08.2024 Academica Academica 1-1 HT 1-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
07.04.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 0-0 Academica Academica POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
1-0
AWAY Academica
44% Ball Possession 56%
4 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs Academica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha edged past Academica 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Academica at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 44% of the ball to Academica's 56%, shots finished 4-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Academica led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sporting Covilha and 1.50 for Academica.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs Academica?

Sporting Covilha 1-0 Academica in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs Academica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Academica win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 25%, draw 23%, Academica 52%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Academica), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Academica) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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