AFC Wimbledon vs Cheltenham Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AFC Wimbledon v Cheltenham Town — Team-Based Signals
AFC Wimbledon vs Cheltenham Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-1
HT 2-0
Cheltenham Town
FAK
3-1
HT 0-1
AFC Wimbledon
İN1
2-2
HT 1-2
Cheltenham Town
İN1
4-3
HT 2-1
Cheltenham Town
FAK
1-1
HT 1-1
Cheltenham Town
İN2
AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Cheltenham Town — Actual Match Statistics
Cheltenham Town squeezed past AFC Wimbledon 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was AFC Wimbledon at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 65% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 35%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.79 to 0.33 — on chances, AFC Wimbledon could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AFC Wimbledon had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.67 for Cheltenham Town.
What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Cheltenham Town?
AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Cheltenham Town in the England - 2nd Division on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Cheltenham Town?
Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 49%, draw 28%, Cheltenham Town 23%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.