AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Cheltenham Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.13
No
60%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.37
2-3 Goals
36%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
4.49
6+ Goals
8%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.32
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.5
X/1
14%
3.96
X/2
6%
9.2
X/X
11%
4.2
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
9%
8.27
2/X
7%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.4pp
60%
BTTS No
57%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 22%
-14% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.38/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.18
+3% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
311 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 69%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
22.1 Crosses 17.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cheltenham Town
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.07 xG 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
294 Passes 222
70% Pass Accuracy 63%
22 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.08.2024 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-1 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
04.11.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 5-1 HT 2-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town FAK
19.03.2022 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 3-1 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
01.02.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-2 HT 1-2 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
04.12.2021 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 4-3 HT 2-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town FAK
02.05.2015 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-1 HT 1-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1-2
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.79 xG 0.33
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
252 Passes 93
68% Pass Accuracy 45%
27 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Cheltenham Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cheltenham Town squeezed past AFC Wimbledon 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was AFC Wimbledon at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 65% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 35%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.79 to 0.33 — on chances, AFC Wimbledon could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AFC Wimbledon had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.67 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Cheltenham Town?

AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Cheltenham Town in the England - 2nd Division on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 49%, draw 28%, Cheltenham Town 23%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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