Derby County 2-0 Coventry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 11 Mar 2025

Derby County
2-0 HT 1-0
Coventry
📅11/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Coventry Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
44%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.54
Over 2.5
45%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.26
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
5.01
6+ Goals
10%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.42
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
8%
15.25
X/1
12%
6.49
X/2
14%
4.54
X/X
12%
3.84
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
22%
3.16
2/X
8%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
28%
-0.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
44%
Away Win
43%
+1.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
61%
-5.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
39%
+5.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.3pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Coventry — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Coventry EU Bookmakers 46%
-3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +13%
1.35/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.30
-1% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / -23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
289 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 74%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
19.2 Crosses 19.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Derby County vs Coventry Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Coventry
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.87 xG 1.29
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
314 Passes 334
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.11.2024 Coventry Coventry 1-2 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
19.03.2022 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 0-1 Coventry Coventry İNCL
08.01.2022 Coventry Coventry 1-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County FAK
23.10.2021 Coventry Coventry 1-1 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
06.03.2021 Coventry Coventry 1-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
01.12.2020 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 0-0 Coventry Coventry İNCL

Derby County 2-0 Coventry — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
2-0
AWAY Coventry
0.62 xG 0.72
31% Ball Possession 69%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
134 Passes 403
62% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Coventry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County got the better of Coventry 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Coventry at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Derby County had 31% of the ball to Coventry's 69%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 0.62 to 0.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Coventry led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Derby County and 1.00 for Coventry.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Coventry?

Derby County 2-0 Coventry in the England - Championship on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Coventry?

Before kick-off our model rated an Coventry win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Derby County 28%, draw 28%, Coventry 44%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Coventry) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Coventry) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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