Cardiff City 1-2 Luton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.26
6+ Goals
8%
21.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 34% vs market 31.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.34
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
11%
4.98
X/2
11%
6.29
X/X
12%
4.03
2/1
11%
30.0
2/2
16%
4.78
2/X
8%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.2pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Luton Town EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -19%
1.15/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.44
-2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
286 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 72%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
19.4 Crosses 16.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff City
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Luton Town
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.94 xG 1.23
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
260 Passes 264
68% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.11.2024 Luton Town Luton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
31.01.2023 Luton Town Luton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
30.08.2022 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-2 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
18.04.2022 Cardiff City Cardiff City 0-1 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
27.11.2021 Luton Town Luton Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
16.02.2021 Luton Town Luton Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff City
1-2
AWAY Luton Town
0.74 xG 0.98
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
325 Passes 212
75% Pass Accuracy 66%
17 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cardiff City vs Luton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luton Town squeezed past Cardiff City 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Luton Town made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cardiff City had 58% of the ball to Luton Town's 42%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.74 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luton Town led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cardiff City and 1.00 for Luton Town.

What was the final score of Cardiff City vs Luton Town?

Cardiff City 1-2 Luton Town in the England - Championship on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff City vs Luton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cardiff City win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cardiff City 40%, draw 28%, Luton Town 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cardiff City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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