Middlesbrough 2-1 Queens Park Rangers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.38
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.3
6+ Goals
8%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 33% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.49
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
14%
4.55
X/2
10%
8.2
X/X
16%
4.88
2/1
11%
23.4
2/2
11%
6.19
2/X
7%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-6.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.7pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Queens Park Rangers EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.52/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.27
-16% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 75%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.0 Crosses 17.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Queens Park Rangers
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.77 xG 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
413 Passes 325
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
05.11.2024 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers 1-4 HT 0-2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
09.03.2024 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers 0-2 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
02.09.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-2 HT 0-1 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers İNCL
18.02.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-1 HT 0-0 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers İNCL
06.08.2022 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers 3-2 HT 3-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
09.02.2022 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers 2-2 HT 1-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
2-1
AWAY Queens Park Rangers
1.10 xG 0.93
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
383 Passes 440
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 13
7 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Queens Park Rangers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough squeezed past Queens Park Rangers 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Middlesbrough as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 47% of the ball to Queens Park Rangers's 53%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.10 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.50 for Queens Park Rangers.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Queens Park Rangers?

Middlesbrough 2-1 Queens Park Rangers in the England - Championship on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Queens Park Rangers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 43%, draw 29%, Queens Park Rangers 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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