Ternana 1-0 Sestri Levante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.3
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.33
No
55%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.26
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.27
6+ Goals
8%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 27% vs market 23.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
72%
-13.9pp
23%
Draw
17%
+5.3pp
19%
Away Win
10%
+8.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
39%
+6.3pp
55%
BTTS No
61%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ternana EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 14%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / -2%
2.75/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.66
+52% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
386 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ternana
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sestri Levante
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2024 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 0-1 HT 0-0 Ternana Ternana İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ternana
1-0
AWAY Sestri Levante
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ternana vs Sestri Levante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ternana edged past Sestri Levante 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ternana as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ternana had 60% of the ball to Sestri Levante's 40%, shots finished 10-7.

What was the final score of Ternana vs Sestri Levante?

Ternana 1-0 Sestri Levante in the Italy - Serie C on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ternana vs Sestri Levante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ternana win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Ternana 58%, draw 23%, Sestri Levante 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ternana), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ternana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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