Deportes Tolima 2-0 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.75
Over 2.5
37%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.96
No
61%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-6.8pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.4pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+1.5pp
63%
Under 2.5
53%
+10.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
47%
-10.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
47%
-7.7pp
61%
BTTS No
53%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.21/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.07
+7% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +6%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
397 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 75%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
17.2 Crosses 13.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Once Caldas
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.83 xG 0.82
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
366 Passes 270
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.12.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
22.11.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
26.10.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-1 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
27.05.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-1 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
13.05.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-1 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
06.04.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
2-0
AWAY Once Caldas
1.62 xG 0.29
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 0
414 Passes 277
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 3
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima got the better of Once Caldas 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Deportes Tolima as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 58% of the ball to Once Caldas's 42%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.62 to 0.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Deportes Tolima and 0.67 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?

Deportes Tolima 2-0 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 49%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportes Tolima), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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