Deportes Tolima 1-0 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 9 Dec 2024

📅09/12/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
31%
3.64
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.75
Over 2.5
35%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-10.9pp
31%
Draw
24%
+7.0pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+3.9pp
65%
Under 2.5
53%
+11.9pp
35%
Over 2.5
47%
-11.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.1pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +16%
1.34/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.08
+4% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +6%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
364 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 76%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
17.5 Crosses 13.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Once Caldas
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.88 xG 0.78
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
372 Passes 260
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.11.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
26.10.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-1 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
27.05.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-1 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
13.05.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-1 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
06.04.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
22.07.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 3-1 HT 2-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
1-0
AWAY Once Caldas
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
353 Passes 272
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima nicked a narrow win over Once Caldas 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Deportes Tolima as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 56% of the ball to Once Caldas's 44%, shots finished 14-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Deportes Tolima and 0.83 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?

Deportes Tolima 1-0 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 09/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 47%, draw 31%, Once Caldas 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportes Tolima), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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