Neuchatel Xamax 1-1 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.29
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
51%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.53
No
49%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.57
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.73
6+ Goals
12%
7.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
27%
-1.2pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
52%
Away Win
48%
+3.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.5pp
49%
BTTS No
39%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neuchatel Xamax EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 52%
-10% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +30%
1.09/1.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/0.98
-17% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +27%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 76%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
19.6 Crosses 9.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neuchatel Xamax
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Aarau
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.42 xG 1.37
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
316 Passes 398
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2025 Aarau Aarau 2-0 HT 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
13.12.2024 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 1-3 HT 1-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
03.08.2024 Aarau Aarau 1-3 HT 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
12.04.2024 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 3-1 HT 1-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
01.03.2024 Aarau Aarau 2-0 HT 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
15.12.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 2-1 HT 2-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Neuchatel Xamax
1-1
AWAY Aarau
0.81 xG 0.66
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
353 Passes 444
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Neuchatel Xamax vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neuchatel Xamax and Aarau couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Aarau at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Neuchatel Xamax had 45% of the ball to Aarau's 55%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.81 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Neuchatel Xamax and 1.67 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Neuchatel Xamax vs Aarau?

Neuchatel Xamax 1-1 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neuchatel Xamax vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Neuchatel Xamax 26%, draw 23%, Aarau 52%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aarau), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aarau) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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