Burton Albion 1-0 AFC Wimbledon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.7
4-5 Goals
21%
3.71
6+ Goals
10%
16.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.42
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
17%
4.22
X/2
8%
8.33
X/X
11%
4.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
25.0
2/2
7%
6.84
2/X
7%
15.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 11% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
52%
+0.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
23%
Away Win
23%
+0.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.3pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 26%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +13%
1.32/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.43
-16% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 69%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
23.0 Crosses 17.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
2W-4D-0L
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.00 xG 0.92
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
242 Passes 243
64% Pass Accuracy 64%
27 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.10.2025 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
22.01.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-1 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
02.10.2021 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
09.03.2021 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
24.10.2020 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-1 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
28.01.2020 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-2 HT 1-2 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
1-0
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
1.25 xG 0.23
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 2
239 Passes 185
66% Pass Accuracy 63%
43 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burton Albion nicked a narrow win over AFC Wimbledon 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Burton Albion as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Burton Albion had 56% of the ball to AFC Wimbledon's 44%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 1.25 to 0.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burton Albion had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Burton Albion and 0.83 for AFC Wimbledon.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?

Burton Albion 1-0 AFC Wimbledon in the England - 1st Division on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burton Albion win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 52%, draw 26%, AFC Wimbledon 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burton Albion), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Burton Albion) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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