Burgos 1-0 Sporting Gijon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.48
Over 2.5
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.16
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
5.28
6+ Goals
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.24
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.25
X/1
19%
4.62
X/2
10%
6.44
X/X
14%
3.62
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
13%
5.38
2/X
8%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.5pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.3pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.2pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burgos EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 31%
+10% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -12%
1.15/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.47
-2% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
295 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 74%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
18.3 Crosses 16.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burgos
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sporting Gijon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.91 xG 1.36
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
316 Passes 331
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
14.09.2025 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-3 HT 0-2 Burgos Burgos İS2
01.02.2025 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
10.11.2024 Burgos Burgos 0-2 HT 0-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
25.02.2024 Burgos Burgos 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
02.09.2023 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-1 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
29.07.2023 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 1-1 Burgos Burgos HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burgos
1-0
AWAY Sporting Gijon
1.05 xG 0.52
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 4
349 Passes 394
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Burgos vs Sporting Gijon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burgos edged past Sporting Gijon 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Burgos as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Burgos had 48% of the ball to Sporting Gijon's 52%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.05 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Gijon led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Burgos and 1.50 for Sporting Gijon.

What was the final score of Burgos vs Sporting Gijon?

Burgos 1-0 Sporting Gijon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burgos vs Sporting Gijon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Burgos 43%, draw 28%, Sporting Gijon 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burgos), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Burgos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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