Vicenza 3-1 Novara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.33
6+ Goals
12%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 27% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
60%
-2.3pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.1pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.8pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vicenza EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Novara EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +12%
1.89/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.22
+14% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
295 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vicenza
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Novara
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2025 Novara Novara 2-2 HT 1-2 Vicenza Vicenza İTC
13.03.2025 Vicenza Vicenza 1-0 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
29.10.2024 Novara Novara 0-0 HT 0-0 Vicenza Vicenza İTC
07.04.2024 Vicenza Vicenza 2-1 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
03.12.2023 Novara Novara 2-2 HT 1-0 Vicenza Vicenza İTC
01.02.2023 Vicenza Vicenza 1-2 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vicenza
3-1
AWAY Novara
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vicenza vs Novara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vicenza got the better of Novara 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vicenza as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Vicenza had 41% of the ball to Novara's 59%, shots finished 11-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vicenza had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vicenza and 1.17 for Novara.

What was the final score of Vicenza vs Novara?

Vicenza 3-1 Novara in the Italy - Serie C on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vicenza vs Novara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vicenza win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Vicenza 57%, draw 22%, Novara 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vicenza) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vicenza)
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