Toronto FC 1-1 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.33
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.07
Over
52%
1.72
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.54
No
46%
2.31
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.83
2-3
37%
1.8
4-5
26%
3.01
6+
10%
9.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.45
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
16%
5.64
X/2
11%
5.96
X/X
12%
5.09
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
17%
3.77
2/X
5%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 7% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Toronto FC The Market 43%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati The Market 39%
Weak Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Strong
Bad Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Average
1.28 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.32
1.33 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.59
Weak Attackvs comparable teams Average
Average Defensevs comparable teams Weak
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
15.6 Crosses 11.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
1W-1D-4L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.92 xG 1.54
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
329 Passes 402
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2026 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-1 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
15.05.2025 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
09.03.2025 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
26.05.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 3-4 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
25.02.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
01.10.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-3 HT 2-2 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
1-1
AWAY FC Cincinnati
0.52 xG 0.78
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
294 Passes 326
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 21
27 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Toronto FC and FC Cincinnati shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We leaned Toronto FC at 43% — softly — and the game went the other way. Slim leads do that.

Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. At 1.54 (~65%), the BTTS-yes price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.

Under the surface, FC Cincinnati saw more of the ball, 51% to 49%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 0.52 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.00 a game for Toronto FC against 1.67 for FC Cincinnati.

Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati Result & Final Score

Toronto FC 1-1 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 43%, draw 23%, FC Cincinnati 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toronto FC), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toronto FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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