Toronto FC 0-1 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 15 May 2025

📅15/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.53
6+ Goals
10%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 29% vs market 26.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.2pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 39%
-11% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.23/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.58
-27% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -24%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 80%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
16.0 Crosses 11.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
0W-1D-5L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.89 xG 2.30
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
353 Passes 389
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2025 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
26.05.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 3-4 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
25.02.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
01.10.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-3 HT 2-2 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
22.06.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
05.05.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
0-1
AWAY FC Cincinnati
0.55 xG 1.20
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 3
352 Passes 391
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati squeezed past Toronto FC 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; FC Cincinnati found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Toronto FC had 49% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 51%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.55 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Toronto FC and 2.33 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Toronto FC 0-1 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 15/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 36%, draw 28%, FC Cincinnati 36%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ BTTS Yes
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