Orlando City 3-1 Charlotte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 15 May 2025

📅15/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.1
Over 2.5
56%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.85
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
27%
2.99
6+ Goals
13%
9.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.24
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
21%
4.41
X/2
7%
9.28
X/X
12%
5.68
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.6
2/2
12%
7.0
2/X
6%
15.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.6 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +6%
1.87/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.51
+10% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
407 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 80%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
18.6 Crosses 16.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Charlotte
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.33 xG 0.89
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
425 Passes 305
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 1-1 HT 0-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
02.11.2024 Charlotte Charlotte 0-0 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
28.10.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 2-0 HT 1-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
19.09.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 2-0 HT 0-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
20.06.2024 Charlotte Charlotte 2-2 HT 1-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
31.08.2023 Charlotte Charlotte 1-1 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
3-1
AWAY Charlotte
0.91 xG 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 2
490 Passes 471
91% Pass Accuracy 88%
24 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orlando City vs Charlotte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City got the better of Charlotte 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Orlando City as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Orlando City had 50% of the ball to Charlotte's 50%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 0.91 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando City had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Orlando City and 0.67 for Charlotte.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs Charlotte?

Orlando City 3-1 Charlotte in the USA - Major League on 15/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs Charlotte?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 51%, draw 25%, Charlotte 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orlando City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Orlando City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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