Nashville SC 2-1 New York Red Bulls — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 15 May 2025

📅15/05/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.37
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.27
6+ Goals
12%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 26% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.61
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
10%
4.61
X/2
9%
7.78
X/X
12%
5.1
2/1
11%
23.3
2/2
13%
5.82
2/X
6%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.77/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.51
+14% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
20.2 Crosses 15.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nashville SC
0W-4D-2L
AWAY New York Red Bulls
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.48 xG 1.48
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
330 Passes 304
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2025 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-0 HT 2-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
16.06.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-0 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
26.02.2024 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0-0 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
22.10.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0-1 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
05.03.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-0 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
07.11.2021 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-1 HT 1-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nashville SC
2-1
AWAY New York Red Bulls
1.91 xG 0.58
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
271 Passes 350
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nashville SC squeezed past New York Red Bulls 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Nashville SC as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Nashville SC had 45% of the ball to New York Red Bulls's 55%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.91 to 0.58 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Nashville SC's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York Red Bulls led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Nashville SC and 0.67 for New York Red Bulls.

What was the final score of Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls?

Nashville SC 2-1 New York Red Bulls in the USA - Major League on 15/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nashville SC win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Nashville SC 48%, draw 25%, New York Red Bulls 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nashville SC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nashville SC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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