Homburg 2-1 SGV Freiberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
2.21
Over
61%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
63%
1.45
No
37%
2.56
Total Goals
0-1
18%
2-3
43%
4-5
29%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
2%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
3%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Homburg The Market 49%
Head to Head
AWAY SGV Freiberg The Market 34%
Weak Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Great
1.75 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.67
1.03 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.79
Weak Attack Strength Great
Strong Defense Strength Average
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
380 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2 Yellow Cards 2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homburg
2W-0D-4L
AWAY SGV Freiberg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.10.2025 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-2 HT 1-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
25.04.2025 Homburg Homburg 1-2 HT 0-2 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
26.10.2024 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-0 HT 1-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
03.04.2024 Homburg Homburg 0-3 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
30.09.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 2-1 HT 1-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
10.12.2022 Homburg Homburg 5-1 HT 2-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
REVIEW Homburg vs SGV Freiberg
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Homburg edged past SGV Freiberg 2-1. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Homburg as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (63%) landed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Homburg and 1.67 for SGV Freiberg.

Homburg vs SGV Freiberg Result & Final Score

Homburg 2 - 1 SGV Freiberg in the Germany - Regional League on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Homburg vs SGV Freiberg Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Homburg 46%, draw 25%, SGV Freiberg 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Homburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Homburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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