SGV Freiberg 1-2 Homburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.39
No
36%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
12%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
+0.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.7pp
64%
BTTS Yes
68%
-3.7pp
36%
BTTS No
32%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Homburg EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.21/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/1.99
-29% / +92% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / -21%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Homburg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2025 Homburg Homburg 1-2 HT 0-2 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
26.10.2024 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-0 HT 1-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
03.04.2024 Homburg Homburg 0-3 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
30.09.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 2-1 HT 1-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
10.12.2022 Homburg Homburg 5-1 HT 2-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
20.08.2022 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 2-0 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Homburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Homburg nicked a narrow win over SGV Freiberg 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was SGV Freiberg at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (64%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for SGV Freiberg and 1.17 for Homburg.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Homburg?

SGV Freiberg 1-2 Homburg in the Germany - Regional League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Homburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 47%, draw 26%, Homburg 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (SGV Freiberg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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