Dandenong Thunder 1-1 Green Gully — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.8
Draw
19%
3.64
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
52%
+6.3pp
20%
Draw
24%
-4.7pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.0pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dandenong Thunder EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Green Gully EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -24%
1.37/0.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.60
+16% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -25%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
24.8 Crosses 25.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dandenong Thunder
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Green Gully
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.05.2025 Green Gully Green Gully 3-1 HT 0-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
08.02.2025 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 2-1 HT 1-1 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
29.06.2024 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-1 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
22.03.2024 Green Gully Green Gully 1-1 HT 1-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
29.07.2023 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
28.04.2023 Green Gully Green Gully 4-2 HT 3-1 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
POST-MATCH Dandenong Thunder vs Green Gully
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dandenong Thunder and Green Gully couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Dandenong Thunder at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Dandenong Thunder and 1.67 for Green Gully.

What was the final score of Dandenong Thunder vs Green Gully?

Dandenong Thunder 1-1 Green Gully in the Australia - National Premier League on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dandenong Thunder vs Green Gully?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dandenong Thunder win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Dandenong Thunder 58%, draw 20%, Green Gully 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Dandenong Thunder), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dandenong Thunder) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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