CA La Paz 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
29%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.21
Over 2.5
59%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
9%
1/X
12%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
43%
+1.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-1.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.0pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-1.7pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 34%
+9% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
1.91/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.34
+26% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
299 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA La Paz
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
6 Yellow Cards 4
02.11.2025 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-1 HT 0-1 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
22.03.2025 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 4-1 HT 3-1 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
05.10.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-5 HT 1-2 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
24.01.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
06.10.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 4-0 HT 1-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
15.01.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-0 HT 1-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA La Paz
1-1
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA La Paz and Tepatitlán de Morelos couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was CA La Paz at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, CA La Paz had 57% of the ball to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 43%, shots finished 12-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for CA La Paz and 2.67 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

CA La Paz 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA La Paz win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split CA La Paz 45%, draw 26%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (CA La Paz), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CA La Paz) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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