Varzim vs Mafra Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Varzim v Mafra — Team-Based Signals
Varzim vs Mafra Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Mafra
POR2
0-0
HT 0-0
Varzim
POR2
2-0
HT 1-0
Mafra
POR2
3-1
HT 1-1
Varzim
POR2
2-1
HT 1-0
Mafra
POR2
Varzim 0-2 Mafra — Actual Match Statistics
Mafra saw off Varzim 2-0 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Varzim at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Varzim had 59% of the ball to Mafra's 41%, shots finished 23-10.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Varzim had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Varzim and 0.83 for Mafra.
What was the final score of Varzim vs Mafra?
Varzim 0-2 Mafra in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Varzim vs Mafra?
Before kick-off our model rated a Varzim win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Varzim 41%, draw 26%, Mafra 33%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Varzim) went the other way.