Sanjoanense 2-3 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
50%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
16%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
24%
+0.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.6pp
50%
Away Win
52%
-1.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanjoanense EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 56%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.34/1.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.23
+21% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -20%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
367 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanjoanense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fafe
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2026 Fafe Fafe 3-2 HT 1-2 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense POR3
09.11.2025 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 1-1 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
10.08.2025 Fafe Fafe 0-2 HT 0-1 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense POR3
30.11.2024 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 0-1 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
17.08.2024 Fafe Fafe 1-1 HT 0-0 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense POR3
30.03.2024 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 4-2 HT 1-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanjoanense
2-3
AWAY Fafe
64% Ball Possession 36%
22 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sanjoanense vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fafe squeezed past Sanjoanense 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fafe as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Sanjoanense had 64% of the ball to Fafe's 36%, shots finished 22-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sanjoanense and 1.33 for Fafe.

What was the final score of Sanjoanense vs Fafe?

Sanjoanense 2-3 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanjoanense vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sanjoanense 24%, draw 26%, Fafe 50%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fafe), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fafe) ✓ BTTS Yes
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