AVS 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
4.71
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
61%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
3.51
6+ Goals
8%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 31% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
24%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
18%
-0.1pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.3pp
61%
Away Win
58%
+2.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 62%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
0.80/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/0.85
-10% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -47%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
227 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
14.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.7
14.9 Crosses 27.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AVS
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.67 xG 1.42
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
241 Passes 427
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 20
10 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 1
17.12.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-1 AVS AVS POK
28.11.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 4-0 HT 3-0 AVS AVS POR
01.02.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 HT 0-0 AVS AVS POR
25.08.2024 AVS AVS 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
1-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.90 xG 2.04
40% Ball Possession 60%
17 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
202 Passes 344
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 35
14 Crosses 22
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AVS vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AVS and Vitoria Guimaraes couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. Vitoria Guimaraes carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, AVS had 40% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 60%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 0.90 to 2.04.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for AVS and 1.50 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of AVS vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

AVS 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split AVS 18%, draw 21%, Vitoria Guimaraes 61%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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