Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 AVS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 17 Dec 2025

📅17/12/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.45
Draw
18%
3.94
Away
14%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.13
No
52%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.02
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.73
6+ Goals
11%
16.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.79
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
18.3
X/1
20%
3.77
X/2
4%
14.1
X/X
7%
5.45
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
6%
12.95
2/X
6%
21.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
65%
+3.3pp
18%
Draw
22%
-4.4pp
14%
Away Win
13%
+1.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
43%
+5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
57%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY AVS EU Bookmakers 16%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-13% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
401 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2W-0D-1L
AWAY AVS
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.42 xG 0.67
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
427 Passes 241
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 10
31 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
28.11.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 4-0 HT 3-0 AVS AVS POR
01.02.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 HT 0-0 AVS AVS POR
25.08.2024 AVS AVS 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
0-1
AWAY AVS
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs AVS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AVS edged past Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Vitoria Guimaraes at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 66% of the ball to AVS's 34%, shots finished 19-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 0.33 for AVS.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs AVS?

Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 AVS in the Portugal - Cup on 17/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs AVS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 68%, draw 18%, AVS 14%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ BTTS No
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