Estrela 0-1 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
13%
7.95
Draw
16%
5.28
Away
71%
1.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.61
Over 2.5
53%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.5
2-3 Goals
41%
2.0
4-5 Goals
25%
2.53
6+ Goals
10%
5.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
17.85
1/2
6%
20.9
1/X
3%
25.0
X/1
4%
21.4
X/2
21%
3.86
X/X
8%
8.89
2/1
3%
34.0
2/2
44%
1.39
2/X
4%
21.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
13%
Home Win
10%
+3.8pp
16%
Draw
16%
+0.8pp
70%
Away Win
75%
-4.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
35%
+12.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
65%
-12.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.6pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 80%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.14/1.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.09/0.68
+67% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -4%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
253 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 83%
13.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
12.8 Crosses 20.6
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-0D-5L
AWAY Sporting CP
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 3.40
1.05 xG 2.49
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
248 Passes 481
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
11 Box Touches 35
8 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
30.11.2025 Sporting CP Sporting CP 4-0 HT 3-0 Estrela Estrela POR
29.03.2025 Estrela Estrela 0-3 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
01.11.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 5-1 HT 3-1 Estrela Estrela POR
29.03.2024 Estrela Estrela 1-2 HT 1-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
05.11.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-2 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
0-1
AWAY Sporting CP
0.38 xG 0.69
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 13
225 Passes 506
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 35
11 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP squeezed past Estrela 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Estrela had 33% of the ball to Sporting CP's 67%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.38 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Estrela and 3.40 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Sporting CP?

Estrela 0-1 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Estrela 13%, draw 16%, Sporting CP 70%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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