Sporting CP 4-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
81%
1.16
Draw
13%
6.26
Away
6%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.29
No
55%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.27
2-3 Goals
42%
1.99
4-5 Goals
26%
2.64
6+ Goals
12%
6.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
46%
1.28
1/2
2%
35.0
1/X
4%
32.0
X/1
25%
3.74
X/2
2%
33.0
X/X
6%
10.45
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
2%
31.0
2/X
3%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
81%
Home Win
81%
-0.2pp
13%
Draw
13%
+0.5pp
6%
Away Win
6%
-0.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+3.0pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-3.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.8pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 9%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
2.40/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.99
+4% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +8%
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
481 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 220 · 72%
35.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.7
22.6 Crosses 13.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Estrela
3.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.53 xG 1.28
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
467 Passes 234
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
36 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 4
29.03.2025 Estrela Estrela 0-3 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
01.11.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 5-1 HT 3-1 Estrela Estrela POR
29.03.2024 Estrela Estrela 1-2 HT 1-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
05.11.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-2 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
4-0
AWAY Estrela
2.36 xG 0.11
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
537 Passes 305
91% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP ran out comfortable winners over Estrela 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 81%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sporting CP had 63% of the ball to Estrela's 37%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 2.36 to 0.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 3.25 goals for Sporting CP and 1.00 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Estrela?

Sporting CP 4-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 81%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 81%, draw 13%, Estrela 6%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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