Porto 1-0 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
78%
1.27
Draw
15%
5.15
Away
7%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.74
2-3 Goals
42%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.77
6+ Goals
10%
7.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.41
1/2
2%
35.0
1/X
5%
23.55
X/1
27%
3.82
X/2
2%
23.55
X/X
6%
8.4
2/1
12%
23.55
2/2
3%
21.0
2/X
3%
28.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
78%
Home Win
75%
+3.6pp
14%
Draw
17%
-2.2pp
7%
Away Win
9%
-1.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.9pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 11%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
2.35/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/2.63
+7% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -16%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
483 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
35.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
20.9 Crosses 11.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Estoril
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.33 xG 0.87
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
494 Passes 196
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
36 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 4
30.03.2025 Estoril Estoril 1-2 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POR
03.11.2024 Porto Porto 4-0 HT 2-0 Estoril Estoril POR
30.03.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
09.01.2024 Estoril Estoril 0-4 HT 0-2 Porto Porto POK
06.12.2023 Estoril Estoril 3-1 HT 1-1 Porto Porto PORLC
03.11.2023 Porto Porto 0-1 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
1-0
AWAY Estoril
1.35 xG 1.05
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
367 Passes 389
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Porto vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto edged past Estoril 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 78%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Porto had 48% of the ball to Estoril's 52%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.35 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Porto and 1.00 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Porto vs Estoril?

Porto 1-0 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 78%, with the full match-result split Porto 78%, draw 14%, Estoril 7%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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