Hapoel Jerusalem 3-0 Beitar Jerusalem — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
46%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.9
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.1
6+ Goals
8%
19.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 31% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
-0.6pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.8pp
46%
Away Win
41%
+5.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hapoel Jerusalem EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Beitar Jerusalem EU Bookmakers 45%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.09/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.14
+23% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +96% / +6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
221 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
15.2 Crosses 14.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hapoel Jerusalem
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Beitar Jerusalem
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 0.78
54% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
356 Passes 300
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
04.02.2024 Hapoel Jerusalem Hapoel Jerusalem 2-1 HT 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem Beitar Jerusalem İSR
06.12.2023 Beitar Jerusalem Beitar Jerusalem 1-0 HT 0-0 Hapoel Jerusalem Hapoel Jerusalem İSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hapoel Jerusalem
3-0
AWAY Beitar Jerusalem
1.52 xG 0.32
27% Ball Possession 73%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 2
117 Passes 463
60% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hapoel Jerusalem vs Beitar Jerusalem
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hapoel Jerusalem ran out comfortable winners over Beitar Jerusalem 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Beitar Jerusalem at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hapoel Jerusalem had 27% of the ball to Beitar Jerusalem's 73%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.52 to 0.32.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hapoel Jerusalem and 1.00 for Beitar Jerusalem.

What was the final score of Hapoel Jerusalem vs Beitar Jerusalem?

Hapoel Jerusalem 3-0 Beitar Jerusalem in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hapoel Jerusalem vs Beitar Jerusalem?

Before kick-off our model rated an Beitar Jerusalem win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Hapoel Jerusalem 30%, draw 24%, Beitar Jerusalem 46%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Beitar Jerusalem), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Beitar Jerusalem) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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