Maccabi Netanya 1-2 Hapoel Eran Hadera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.81
6+ Goals
11%
16.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 31% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.0pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.3pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maccabi Netanya EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Hapoel Eran Hadera EU Bookmakers 31%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.57/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.03
-38% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +115%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
18.9 Crosses 11.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maccabi Netanya
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Hapoel Eran Hadera
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.83 xG 1.10
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
408 Passes 243
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Maccabi Netanya Maccabi Netanya 1-3 HT 0-3 Hapoel Eran Hadera Hapoel Eran Hadera İSR
30.12.2023 Hapoel Eran Hadera Hapoel Eran Hadera 1-4 HT 0-2 Maccabi Netanya Maccabi Netanya İSR
30.07.2023 Maccabi Netanya Maccabi Netanya 3-1 HT 0-0 Hapoel Eran Hadera Hapoel Eran Hadera İSRTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maccabi Netanya
1-2
AWAY Hapoel Eran Hadera
0.46 xG 2.69
72% Ball Possession 28%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 5
495 Passes 147
84% Pass Accuracy 65%
13 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Eran Hadera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hapoel Eran Hadera squeezed past Maccabi Netanya 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Maccabi Netanya at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Maccabi Netanya had 72% of the ball to Hapoel Eran Hadera's 28%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.46 to 2.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hapoel Eran Hadera's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Maccabi Netanya had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Maccabi Netanya and 1.67 for Hapoel Eran Hadera.

What was the final score of Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Eran Hadera?

Maccabi Netanya 1-2 Hapoel Eran Hadera in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Eran Hadera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maccabi Netanya win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Maccabi Netanya 44%, draw 30%, Hapoel Eran Hadera 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Maccabi Netanya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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