Newcastle United 2-0 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.23
Over 2.5
48%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.5
No
53%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.59
2-3 Goals
36%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.8
6+ Goals
11%
7.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.59 — our 29% vs market 16.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.04
1/2
5%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.3
X/1
13%
5.5
X/2
12%
6.9
X/X
16%
5.55
2/1
7%
22.9
2/2
16%
4.33
2/X
5%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
62%
-16.0pp
53%
BTTS No
38%
+16.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -22%
2.21/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.77
+28% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
34.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
19.3 Crosses 13.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Chelsea
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.53 xG 1.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
322 Passes 500
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
30.10.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-0 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNLK
27.10.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 2-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
11.03.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 3-2 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
19.12.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
25.11.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-1 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
28.05.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
2-0
AWAY Chelsea
1.56 xG 0.69
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 8
345 Passes 436
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
38 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United saw off Chelsea 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 32% — and on the day Newcastle United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Newcastle United had 45% of the ball to Chelsea's 55%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.56 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Newcastle United and 1.33 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Chelsea?

Newcastle United 2-0 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 40%, draw 27%, Chelsea 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
11 May 2025
16:15 Nottingham Forest vs Leicester City Analysis →
16:15 Manchester United vs West Ham United Analysis →
16:15 Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Analysis →
18:30 Liverpool vs Arsenal Analysis →