Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.15
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.96
6+ Goals
11%
8.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.08
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.1
X/1
10%
5.47
X/2 EV+ ✗
16%
6.96
X/X
10%
5.17
2/1
7%
23.75
2/2
12%
4.5
2/X
7%
12.5
Value flag · X/2 at 6.96 — our 16% vs market 10.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.0pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.1pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 34%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
2.14/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.34
+38% / +122% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +26%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
377 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 80%
32.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
19.7 Crosses 15.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Arsenal
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.37 xG 1.57
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
379 Passes 355
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.10.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 2-2 HT 2-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
01.08.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 2-1 HT 2-1 Arsenal Arsenal HAZ
04.02.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
07.01.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool FAK
23.12.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 1-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
09.04.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 2-2 HT 1-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
2-2
AWAY Arsenal
2.39 xG 2.58
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 1
292 Passes 384
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
36 Box Touches 36
11 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool and Arsenal couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Liverpool at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Liverpool had 44% of the ball to Arsenal's 56%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 2.39 to 2.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Liverpool and 1.50 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Arsenal?

Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 43%, draw 24%, Arsenal 34%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Liverpool) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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