Sport Recife 0-4 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 11 May 2025

Sport Recife
0-4 HT 0-3
Cruzeiro
📅11/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.51
Over 2.5
33%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.06
No
62%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
15%
5.61
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.31 — our 40% vs market 37.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.75
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
10%
14.0
X/1
14%
5.16
X/2
15%
6.05
X/X
13%
3.6
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
8%
4.79
2/X
6%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.7pp
29%
Draw
31%
-1.8pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.8pp
67%
Under 2.5
62%
+4.0pp
33%
Over 2.5
38%
-4.0pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.6pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sport Recife v Cruzeiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
1.25/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.24
-42% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +92%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
297 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 82%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
25.6 Crosses 18.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.76 xG 1.28
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
294 Passes 363
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.10.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 3-1 HT 2-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
29.06.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-1 HT 2-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
08.09.2018 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
13.05.2018 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
20.08.2017 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
22.05.2017 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-1 HT 1-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1

Sport Recife 0-4 Cruzeiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
0-4
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.01 xG 1.43
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
332 Passes 431
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro cruised past Sport Recife 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

Our pre-match lean was Sport Recife at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (62%) landed while under 2.5 goals (67%) missed.

On the day, Sport Recife had 46% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 54%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.01 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sport Recife and 1.33 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro?

Sport Recife 0-4 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 42%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 29%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Sport Recife), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
11 May 2025
00:30 Mirassol FC vs Corinthians Analysis →
00:30 Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama Analysis →
00:30 Gremio vs Bragantino Analysis →
03:00 Flamengo vs Bahia Analysis →
23:30 Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo Analysis →
23:30 Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense Analysis →