Palmeiras 1-0 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.76
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
17%
5.55
6+ Goals
9%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.42
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
15.6
X/1
15%
4.07
X/2
7%
9.46
X/X
12%
3.87
2/1
9%
31.5
2/2
9%
8.69
2/X
9%
17.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.3pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.5pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.7pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.2pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +14%
1.67/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.30
-8% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
348 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 81%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
23.6 Crosses 14.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.24 xG 0.77
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
287 Passes 325
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
18.08.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
30.04.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
04.02.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRSC
26.10.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 5-0 HT 3-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
14.07.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-2 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
06.07.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
1-0
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.43 xG 0.87
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
375 Passes 275
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 11
33 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras nicked a narrow win over Sao Paulo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Palmeiras had 57% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 43%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.43 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Palmeiras and 0.67 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?

Palmeiras 1-0 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 49%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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