Flamengo 1-0 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
17%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.16
No
53%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.76
6+ Goals
13%
15.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.72
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
19.2
X/1
17%
3.73
X/2
7%
15.35
X/X
12%
5.76
2/1
11%
26.0
2/2
5%
14.25
2/X
6%
22.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
67%
-8.8pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.4pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+4.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.7pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 15%
-9% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -8%
1.78/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.56
-3% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
396 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 79%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
20.9 Crosses 14.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Bahia
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.48 xG 0.96
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
376 Passes 436
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Bahia Bahia 0-2 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
13.09.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BRK
29.08.2024 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
21.06.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 2-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
30.09.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.05.2023 Bahia Bahia 2-3 HT 1-3 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
1-0
AWAY Bahia
1.52 xG 0.47
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
489 Passes 294
90% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo squeezed past Bahia 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Flamengo had 61% of the ball to Bahia's 39%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.52 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Flamengo and 0.50 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Bahia?

Flamengo 1-0 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 58%, draw 25%, Bahia 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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