Vitoria 2-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.61
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
4.75
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.79
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
18%
4.47
X/2
10%
7.66
X/X
13%
4.07
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
10%
6.39
2/X
11%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.3pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.8pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.0pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 28%
-6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
1.56/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.36
-24% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
347 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
24.6 Crosses 20.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 1.08
44% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
253 Passes 368
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.09.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
13.05.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
11.11.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-3 HT 0-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR2
08.08.2021 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
10.09.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
13.05.2018 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-3 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
2-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.53 xG 0.67
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
280 Passes 572
83% Pass Accuracy 92%
14 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria edged past Vasco da Gama 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vitoria as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria had 36% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 64%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 1.53 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vitoria and 1.00 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama?

Vitoria 2-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 45%, draw 30%, Vasco da Gama 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
11 May 2025
00:30 Mirassol FC vs Corinthians Analysis →
00:30 Gremio vs Bragantino Analysis →
03:00 Flamengo vs Bahia Analysis →
22:00 Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro Analysis →
23:30 Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo Analysis →
23:30 Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense Analysis →